Demographics

Current Population

Town of Limon         1,942
Lincoln County         5,526
(Estimated 2017 by Colorado State Demography Office)

Total Population
From 2000 to 2010, population decreased 1.1% per year in the primary market area (PMA), which is equivalent to Lincoln County. The PMA's population rose 0.5% annually from 2010 through 2018, and projects that it will increase 0.8% per year, to 5,925 by 2023. The Colorado Department of Local Affairs (DOLA) reported Lincoln County had an average annual population decrease of 0.6% from 2000 to 2017, the most recent year for which data was available. This amount is similar to the estimate by Claritas, which reported a population decrease of 0.4% between 2000 and 2017. DOLA projects that the PMA population will increase from 5,677 to 6,081 between 2018 and 2023, representing an annual increase of 1.4% that is slightly higher than the Claritas estimate.

Between 2013 and 2018, the County’s population increased by 2.5%.

Population Growth Rate 2013-2018
Source: U.S. Census

Population by Age
The following table shows the age distribution of the population of the PMA in 2000, the estimate for 2018 and the projection for 2023. Between 2000 and 2018, the 35‐44 age cohort accounted for the highest percentage of the population decrease. Claritas projects that the 65‐74 age group will increase the fastest through 2023. The projected rate of population growth for the 55 and older age group in the PMA (1.5%) is faster than the average annual increase for the overall population (0.8%). The County has a slightly lower median age (37.5) than the U.S. (37.9), but slightly higher than Colorado (36.7).

Total Households
Since 2000, the PMA has added an average of two households per year. The PMA is projected to gain 24 households per year through 2023. The PMA's projected annual household growth rate (1.2%) is faster than its rate from 2000 through 2018 (0.1%). Colorado Department of Local Affairs (DOLA) reported a total of 2,026 households in Lincoln County in 2018, which represents a 0.5% increase from the 2010 level. However, DOLA estimates that the total households in the PMA will increase by an annual rate of 1.4% through 2023, which is slightly greater than the annual growth rate estimated by Claritas (1.2%).

However, the PMA added 93 jobs annually from 2013 to 2017. This does not exactly equate to new households in the market, but there are ways to look at it. The number of unemployed persons decreased by 36 in 2014, 13 in 2015, 16 in 2016 and 7 in 2017. The number of employed persons increased 63 in 2014, 50 in 2015, 126 in 2016 and 132 in 2017. The difference in those numbers would suggest new jobs for new persons in the PMA. The average difference in those four years is 75 and has been increasing. If each new job from persons outside goes at a general rate of 1.5 jobs per household, it results in the addition of 50 households per year, multiplied by the owner rate in the PMA is 33 added owner households annually.

This suggests that the growth could be understated. One challenge is that many employees in the new jobs live outside the PMA due to the limited supply of quality homes in the PMA. Given that the average takes into consideration the outside numbers, and that the developer would need to attract households now living outside the PMA, the 33 new owners per year is a good baseline estimate if job growth continues.